How REITs Became The Safe Haven Trade In The Tech Wreck

Core Viewpoint - REITs are regaining favor as a safe haven investment, showing a year-to-date increase of 6.9% compared to a broader market decline [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The turning point for market sentiment occurred in early February, coinciding with a reversal of previously hot trades and a focus on significant capital expenditure (capex) by hyperscalers during earnings season [3] - Major tech companies like Microsoft, Google, and Amazon experienced declines of 5%, 10%, and 18% respectively, contributing to a 4% drop in the Nasdaq and a 2% drop in the S&P in the first two weeks of February [7][8] - Traditional safe havens, including gold and silver, have not performed well, leading investors to consider REITs as a more reliable option [9][11] Group 2: REITs' Fundamental Strength - REITs have demonstrated strong fundamental performance over the past five years, with metrics such as FFO (Funds From Operations) growth and improved margins [13][16] - The median REIT trades at 13.8X FFO, significantly lower than the S&P's 29.3X trailing earnings, indicating a divergence in valuation [21] - REITs currently offer an FFO yield of 7.24%, compared to the S&P's earnings yield of 3.4%, allowing for larger dividend payouts [24] Group 3: Cash Flow Reliability - REITs benefit from contractual revenue streams that can extend up to 30 years, providing visibility into future cash flows and supporting consistent dividend growth [17][19] - A forecast indicates that 36 REITs are expected to increase their dividends in the first quarter of 2026, reflecting their reliable cash flow structure [17] Group 4: Direct Benefits from Tech Capex - Many REITs are positioned to benefit directly from the trillions of dollars being spent on AI infrastructure, with companies like Equinix reporting accelerating growth in AFFO per share due to increased demand for data centers [29] - The demand for infrastructure related to AI is driving significant growth opportunities for REITs, contrasting with the challenges faced by hyperscalers [29] Group 5: Market Correction and Future Outlook - The current market correction is seen as a recalibration of previously inflated tech valuations, with capital shifting towards undervalued sectors like REITs [32][33] - The outperformance of REITs in 2026 is viewed as just the beginning, with expectations for further normalization of relative value as the market adjusts [33]