Walmart Vs Target: Which Retail Stock is the Best Investment as Q4 Results Approach?

Core Insights - Investors are eagerly awaiting Q4 results from Walmart and Target, with Walmart reporting on February 19 and Target on March 3, following a record holiday shopping season [1] - Walmart's stock has surged approximately 30% in the past three months, while Target's stock is also rebounding after previous struggles [1][3] Walmart Performance Overview - Walmart has shown strong performance, attracting value-focused consumers due to lower sourcing costs and a robust omnichannel ecosystem with significant e-commerce growth [2] - The stock is trading near an all-time high of $134, having increased over 160% in the last three years, outperforming broader market indexes [4] Target Performance Overview - Target's stock is recovering after facing sales declines and brand challenges, implementing cost-cutting measures and store improvements to enhance competitiveness against Walmart and Amazon [3] - Despite a challenging period, Target's stock is considered undervalued, trading at 14X forward earnings compared to the S&P 500's 22X and the retail sector's 24X [10] Q4 Expectations - Walmart's Q4 sales are projected to rise 5% year-over-year to $189.99 billion, with earnings expected at $0.73 per share, a 10% increase from the previous year [7] - In contrast, Target's Q4 sales are anticipated to decline 1% to $30.54 billion, with earnings per share expected to drop 10% to $2.17 [8] Annual Projections - Walmart's annual sales for FY26 are expected to increase 4% to $711.46 billion, with full-year EPS projected to rise 5% to $2.64 [7] - Target's annual sales are forecasted to dip 1% to $104.87 billion, with full-year EPS expected to decrease 17% to $7.30 compared to $8.86 in FY25 [8] Dividend Insights - Target offers a higher annual dividend yield of 3.94%, significantly above the S&P 500's average of 1.09% and the retail sector's 0.73%, making it an attractive option for dividend investors [13] - Target has a longer history of dividend increases, having raised its dividend for 54 consecutive years compared to Walmart's 52 years [13] Investment Ratings - Target currently holds a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy), indicating potential for a rally leading up to its Q4 report [14] - Walmart has a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), suggesting that stronger-than-expected Q4 results may be necessary to justify its higher P/E valuation [14]