首相指名选举日：高市连任几无悬念，日本政坛陷三重危机丨国际识局

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming special Diet session in Japan is expected to confirm Prime Minister Sanna Takashi's re-election, following the Liberal Democratic Party's (LDP) overwhelming victory in the House of Representatives elections. However, this consolidation of power may lead Japan into a crisis characterized by increased right-wing tendencies, deepening social divides, and deteriorating diplomatic relations [1][2]. Group 1: Election Process and Outcomes - The special Diet session must be convened within 30 days after the House of Representatives elections to elect the Prime Minister, with a majority vote required for direct election [2]. - The LDP secured over two-thirds of the seats in the recent elections, making Takashi's victory in the Prime Ministerial election almost certain [2]. - The election strategy employed by Takashi's team, described as a "lightning war," limited the time for opposition parties to respond, leading to a focus on media exposure rather than policy differences among voters [2][5]. Group 2: Domestic Policy Challenges - Takashi is expected to face significant domestic policy challenges, particularly in economic growth and social welfare, as her economic policies heavily rely on increased fiscal spending and debt financing, which may exacerbate yen depreciation and inflation pressures [5][6]. - The defense budget has been increased for 14 consecutive years, with the fiscal year 2026 budget projected at 9.04 trillion yen. Takashi plans to raise personal income tax to fund defense spending, introducing an additional 1% tax starting January 2027, expected to generate over 200 billion yen annually [7][8]. - There is a notable divide in Japan's political landscape regarding immigration policy, with nearly 37% of candidates advocating for tighter restrictions on foreign labor, while only 6% support more open policies [8][9]. Group 3: Political Crisis and Social Consensus - Takashi's potential re-election may push Japanese politics further to the right, with significant shifts in the balance of power within the Diet, as the LDP's overwhelming majority diminishes the checks and balances typically provided by opposition parties [11][12]. - The push for a "strong military" policy contrasts sharply with the "people's welfare and pacifism" stance held by opposition parties and segments of the public, leading to increased social division [13]. - The government's aggressive military expansion and proposed establishment of a "National Intelligence Agency" may provoke public backlash, particularly as military spending competes with social welfare funding [13]. Group 4: Diplomatic Relations - Takashi's administration is likely to face deteriorating diplomatic relations, particularly with China, as her government has not retracted controversial statements regarding Taiwan, potentially undermining the political foundation of the Japan-China Joint Statement [14]. - The LDP's supermajority may enable Takashi to pursue constitutional amendments and a more aggressive foreign policy without significant opposition [14]. - Relations with Russia and the United States also present challenges, with warnings about the unpredictability of U.S. policies under President Trump and the potential for increased tensions in the region [14].