德国或难再现强劲增长 人口老龄化成主要掣肘

Core Viewpoint - The future of the German economy may struggle to replicate past high growth rates due to the constraints of an aging population, as stated by Marcel Fratzscher, the head of the German Economic Institute [1] Economic Growth Projections - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects that Germany's long-term potential economic growth rate will average only about 0.7% per year [1] - The German Economic Expert Committee also predicts that by 2070, the annual growth rate of the German economy may remain around 0.7% [1] Causes of Economic Stagnation - The primary reason for the long-term economic stagnation is the issue of social aging, characterized by a decreasing available workforce and an expanding retired population that needs support [1] Recommendations for Government Reform - Fratzscher urges the government to raise taxes and cut subsidies to create fiscal space for reforms [1] - Suggested reforms include gradually abolishing "mini-jobs," increasing property taxes, and eliminating or at least reducing tax incentives deemed harmful to the climate, which collectively amount to approximately €60 billion annually [1] - He also advocates for the abolition of the income splitting system for couples, which imposes an annual burden of about €22 billion on the budget [1]