Core Insights - The analysis indicates that the rapid rise in unauthorized immigrant worker flows (UIWF) from March 2021 to March 2024 had a nearly one-for-one effect on local employment growth, while the subsequent slowdown from March 2024 to March 2025 negatively impacted local employment, particularly in construction and manufacturing [3][25]. Group 1: Unauthorized Immigration and Employment - The increase in unauthorized immigrant workers has been linked to a significant rise in local employment, with estimates suggesting a one-for-one relationship between UIWF and employment growth during both the rapid rise and slowdown periods [3][25]. - The slowdown in unauthorized immigration has had a pronounced negative effect on local employment, especially in the construction and manufacturing sectors, indicating that these industries are particularly sensitive to changes in immigration flows [25][26]. Group 2: Industry-Specific Impacts - During the rapid rise period, industries such as leisure and hospitality, professional services, and other services experienced greater employment growth than would be expected based on their typical share of total employment, suggesting a strong positive impact from UIWF [22][24]. - In contrast, the slowdown period saw significant employment declines in construction, manufacturing, and other services, highlighting that areas with the largest decreases in unauthorized immigration also faced the most substantial slowdowns in employment growth [24][25].
Unauthorized Immigration Effects on Local Labor Markets
Federal Reserve Bank Of San Francisco·2026-02-18 02:00