美国急建“去中国”关键矿产体系，日媒：至少面临长达十年的艰巨挑战

Core Viewpoint - The United States is attempting to reduce its dependence on China in the critical minerals sector through significant investments, strategic reserves, and supply chain restructuring, but faces a challenging reality that may take up to a decade to overcome [1][4]. Group 1: U.S. Initiatives - The U.S. government has launched a $12 billion strategic reserve plan for critical minerals and is forming a "critical minerals trade alliance" to exclude China [1]. - The Biden administration has committed over $30 billion in investments and loans to the private sector in the past six months for critical minerals [1][3]. - The "Project Vault" initiative aims to establish a strategic reserve with $10 billion in loans from the Export-Import Bank and nearly $2 billion in private sector investments [3]. Group 2: Challenges and Limitations - Experts warn that the U.S. measures may not adequately address short-term supply shocks, as replacing Chinese suppliers quickly is highly challenging [3][4]. - China controls 60% of global rare earth mining and 90% of refining capacity, making it difficult for the U.S. to achieve self-sufficiency in the near term [4][8]. - The average time from discovering a mine to operational status is about 16 years, complicating the U.S. efforts to ramp up domestic production [7]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The "Project Vault" may only cover 45 days of demand for 44 critical minerals, raising concerns about its effectiveness [4][5]. - The U.S. government's transparency regarding its budget and plans may weaken its bargaining power, potentially increasing procurement costs [5]. - The U.S. has invested in several mining companies, including MP Materials, which operates the only rare earth mine in the U.S. [5][8]. Group 4: Long-term Outlook - Analysts suggest that it may take years for the U.S. to build sufficient rare earth supplies, and by then, China's need for export controls may diminish [4][10]. - A more promising alternative could be investing in new technologies to enhance refining and processing capabilities, which have shown potential for innovation [8][9]. - Japan's experience shows that even with over a decade of investment, reducing dependence on China in critical minerals is a long-term challenge [10].