Down 15% Already This Year, Is Rivian Stock a Buy?

Core Viewpoint - Rivian is expected to experience significant growth in vehicle deliveries in 2026, despite facing challenges in 2025 and a recent decline in stock performance [1][8]. Financial Performance - Rivian's fourth-quarter revenue fell 26% year over year to approximately $1.3 billion [1]. - The company's automotive revenue in Q2 2025 decreased from $1.074 billion in Q2 2024 to $927 million [5]. - However, Q3 2025 saw a revenue increase of 78% year over year to nearly $1.6 billion, influenced by the expiration of an electric vehicle tax credit [5][6]. - Overall, Rivian reported an 8% year-over-year revenue increase last year, which is considered unimpressive given its high valuation [7]. Future Outlook - For 2026, Rivian anticipates delivering between 62,000 and 67,000 vehicles, indicating a year-over-year growth rate of 53% [8]. - Management expects improvements in adjusted EBITDA for 2026, despite the challenges of scaling new vehicle production [9]. - The introduction of the R2 model is expected to reduce manufacturing complexity and costs, positioning Rivian to expand its market and increase sales [10]. Market Position - Rivian's current market capitalization is approximately $20.5 billion, with shares trading at around $16.47 [12]. - The automotive industry remains highly competitive, with Rivian facing challenges not only from other electric vehicle manufacturers but also from larger traditional automakers [12].