【环球财经】1月澳大利亚经济活动领先指数增长率下滑 2026年澳经济可能“时好时坏”

Core Insights - The Westpac-Melbourne Institute Leading Index of Economic Activity for Australia shows a decline in the six-month annualized growth rate from 0.44% in December 2025 to 0.02% in January 2026, indicating a slowdown in economic momentum [1] - Westpac forecasts Australia's GDP growth rate to remain at 2.5% for 2026, slightly up from the previous estimate of 2.4% [1] Economic Indicators - The leading index's components indicate that consumer sentiment is weak, primarily due to changing interest rate expectations, with further rate hikes anticipated by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) [2] - Commodity prices, which had previously supported GDP growth, are losing their positive impact, contributing 0.36 percentage points to the leading index's growth rate over the past six months [2] - The rise in commodity prices in AUD terms is only about 9% due to a 4% appreciation of the AUD against the USD, despite a 13% increase in USD-denominated commodity prices [2] Monetary Policy Outlook - The RBA's next monetary policy meeting is scheduled for March 16-17, where a cautious tightening approach is expected, pending further economic data [3] - The leading index's recent changes suggest that the shift in the interest rate environment is beginning to exert pressure on economic growth momentum, with inflation remaining a primary concern for the RBA [3] - The next key economic data release will be the quarterly CPI on April 29, which is expected to show inflation at "uncomfortably high levels" [3]