李迅雷：如何理解出口引擎的“数据错觉”

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the divergence between intuition and data regarding China's export growth, highlighting that while exports are traditionally seen as a key driver of economic growth, recent data shows a decline in China's export growth compared to global averages [1][2]. Group 1: Export Growth Analysis - According to WTO data, only in 2024 did China's export growth in USD terms exceed the global average over the past four years, with lower growth rates observed in 2022, 2023, and the first three quarters of 2025 [1]. - China's share of global exports has remained relatively stable, fluctuating between 14% and 15% from 2020 to the first three quarters of 2025, with a peak of 14.9% in 2021 [1][2]. - The actual effectiveness of China's exports as a GDP driver is masked by price and exchange rate factors, but when these are adjusted for, the quantity of exports as a share of global totals has been increasing [2][3]. Group 2: Factors Influencing Export Performance - The increase in China's export quantity share from 13.2% in 2019 to 17.0% by the first three quarters of 2025 is attributed to three main factors: accelerated industrial upgrading, declining export prices, and the diversification of markets through the Belt and Road Initiative [3][4]. - The share of high-value-added products in China's exports has risen, with capital-intensive goods increasing from 56.80% in 2019 to 62.97% in 2025, while labor-intensive and raw material exports have decreased [3]. - The prices of Chinese export products have been declining, with a cumulative drop of 10.1% in export prices from 2023 to 2025, reflecting a "strong supply, weak demand" environment [3][4]. Group 3: Market Diversification and Future Outlook - The Belt and Road Initiative has successfully opened new markets, with significant increases in export shares to ASEAN, Africa, Russia, India, and Mexico, while shares to the US and EU have decreased [4][5]. - Future predictions indicate that China's export quantity share will continue to rise due to ongoing industrial upgrades, stable export prices, and improved external conditions [5][6]. - The potential for further increases in China's global export share is estimated to be around 2 percentage points by 2030, suggesting continued resilience in export growth [11].