价格因素对中国出口的拖累将逐步减弱

Core Viewpoint - Recent data indicates that China's export growth is lagging behind the global average, but long-term factors suggest that the negative impact of price factors on exports will gradually diminish [1] Group 1: Export Growth Factors - Price and exchange rate factors have constrained China's export growth measured in USD over the past few years [1] - Excluding these factors, the share of China's export volume has been continuously increasing, highlighting its significant role in global trade [1] - The increase in China's export volume share is attributed to industrial upgrades, declining product prices, and market diversification from the Belt and Road Initiative [1] Group 2: Future Outlook - The negative impact of price factors on exports is expected to weaken in the future due to trade friction risks, optimization of export tax rebate policies, and the linkage of domestic and foreign sales prices [1] - A stable and appreciating RMB exchange rate is predicted to support exports, with limited short-term potential for USD appreciation [1] - It is forecasted that by 2030, China's export value share of the global market will reach a new steady state of approximately 17%, an increase of 2 percentage points from the current level, indicating resilience in China's export performance in the coming years [1]