英国1月通胀率降至3.0% 降息预期升温

Core Insights - The UK inflation rate is projected to drop to 3.0% in January 2026, down from 3.4% in December 2025, marking the lowest level since March 2025, which significantly enhances market expectations for a rate cut by the Bank of England [1] Inflation Data Summary - The primary reasons for the decline in inflation are the slowing price increases in transportation, food, and non-alcoholic beverages, with food price growth reaching its slowest since April 2025 [1] - The core inflation rate, excluding volatile items such as energy, food, and tobacco, rose by 3.1%, the lowest since 2021 [1] - The service sector inflation rate slightly decreased to 4.4%, remaining above market expectations, indicating persistent price pressures [1] Market Expectations - The reported data aligns with economists' expectations and is slightly above the Bank of England's previous forecast of 2.9% [1] - The Bank of England anticipates that the inflation rate will approach its policy target of 2% by April this year [1] - Analysts suggest that the continued decline in inflation supports a shift in monetary policy for the Bank of England, with a nearly 90% probability of a rate cut in March and potential further cuts within the year [1]