AI capex surge drives higher US investment grade issuance forecast
Yahoo Finance·2026-02-18 15:00

Core Insights - UBS raised its 2026 US investment grade issuance forecast to $1.8 trillion, citing increased hyperscaler capital expenditure [1] - The bank's US investment grade technology supply estimate increased to $360 billion, reflecting a significant rise in capital spending from major tech companies [1][2] - UBS maintained its forecasts for US high yield, European investment grade, and European high yield, while reducing its US leveraged loan projection [1][3] Investment Grade Issuance - The forecast for US investment grade issuance was increased due to stronger technology issuance and a rise in mergers and acquisitions, indicating a year-on-year growth of 22% [3] - Year-to-date US investment-grade issuance reached $296 billion, which is 31% higher than the previous year, with technology issuance more than doubling as a share of total supply [4] Hyperscaler Capital Expenditure - Aggregate hyperscaler capital expenditure guidance for 2026 rose by approximately $145 billion, leading to an expected public debt issuance increase of $40 billion to $50 billion [2] - Major companies like Amazon, Meta, and Google significantly raised their capital expenditure guidance, driving total projected hyperscaler capex to around $770 billion, which is about 23% higher than previous estimates [2] Leveraged Loans and Defaults - UBS reduced its leveraged loan forecast to $360 billion, citing concerns over artificial intelligence disruption risks being underpriced in loan and private credit markets [3] - The bank anticipates a marginal rise in leveraged loan defaults by roughly 2% and a spread widening to 610 basis points by the end of 2026, which may dampen refinancing and leveraged buyout activity [4] Reverse Yankee Issuance - UBS expects an increase in reverse yankee issuance, where US technology companies issue bonds in currencies like sterling and Swiss francs to diversify funding sources [5] - Despite hedged yields indicating that US dollar funding remains cheaper, particularly for longer maturities, this strategy is seen as a way to access different investor bases [5] Market Absorption and Positioning - The investment-grade market is believed to be able to absorb the additional supply, supported by muted sovereign and emerging market issuance and relatively tight spreads in structured credit [6] - UBS maintains a short position on US investment-grade technology versus the broader index, cautioning that spreads could widen despite strong demand [6]

AI capex surge drives higher US investment grade issuance forecast - Reportify