Innodata vs. BigBear.ai: Which AI Play Has More Upside Now?

Core Insights - The artificial intelligence boom has created distinct investment opportunities, with Innodata (INOD) and BigBear.ai (BBAI) representing different approaches to capitalize on this trend [1][2]. Company Overview - Innodata has positioned itself as a high-growth data engineering partner for Big Tech and AI model builders, acting as a "picks and shovels" enabler of generative AI [2]. - BigBear.ai focuses on mission-ready AI solutions for defense and intelligence, recently expanding its capabilities through acquisitions [2]. Financial Performance - Innodata reported third-quarter revenues of $62.6 million, a 20% increase year over year, with adjusted EBITDA of $16.2 million, and anticipates 45% or more revenue growth in 2025 [7][10]. - In contrast, BigBear.ai's third-quarter revenue declined 20% year over year to $33.1 million, with a gross margin decrease to 22.4% [8][10]. Growth Potential - Innodata's revenue for the first nine months of 2025 reached $179.3 million, up 61% year over year, driven by demand for high-quality data [9]. - The company has a potential revenue pipeline of approximately $68 million from new contracts, positioning it well for future growth [11]. - BigBear.ai's recent acquisition of Ask Sage for $250 million aims to enhance its secure AI capabilities, although operational performance remains under pressure [14][17]. Valuation Metrics - Innodata trades at a forward price-to-sales ratio of 4.39X, while BigBear.ai trades at 9.95X, despite BigBear's weaker growth trajectory and negative EBITDA [10][18]. - Innodata's lower valuation multiple aligns with its profitable growth profile and clearer earnings visibility [18]. Earnings Outlook - The consensus estimate for Innodata's 2026 earnings per share is $1.12, indicating a 27.8% growth from 2025, with revenues expected to rise 25.9% [21]. - BigBear.ai is projected to narrow its loss to 25 cents per share in 2026, with revenues expected to grow 30.2% [22]. Investment Considerations - Both companies are positioned to benefit from expanding AI budgets, particularly in generative AI and federal deployments [23]. - However, Innodata is seen as having a clearer path to sustained profitability and diversified growth drivers, making it a more compelling investment opportunity at current levels [24][25].