Acadia Pharmaceuticals (ACAD) Expected to Beat Earnings Estimates: Can the Stock Move Higher?

Core Viewpoint - Acadia Pharmaceuticals (ACAD) is anticipated to report a year-over-year decline in earnings despite an increase in revenues for the quarter ending December 2025, with the consensus outlook indicating a significant impact on its stock price based on actual results compared to estimates [1][2]. Earnings Expectations - The upcoming earnings report is expected to show earnings of $0.12 per share, reflecting a year-over-year decrease of 29.4%, while revenues are projected to be $292.58 million, representing a 12.7% increase from the previous year [3]. - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised 3.23% higher in the last 30 days, indicating a reassessment by analysts regarding the company's earnings prospects [4]. Earnings Surprise Prediction - The Zacks Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction) model suggests that a positive Earnings ESP reading of +14.92% indicates a likelihood of Acadia beating the consensus EPS estimate, although the company currently holds a Zacks Rank of 3 [12]. - Historical performance shows that Acadia has beaten consensus EPS estimates three out of the last four quarters, with a notable surprise of +85.71% in the last reported quarter [13][14]. Industry Context - Day One Biopharmaceuticals, another player in the same industry, is expected to report a loss of $0.17 per share for the same quarter, which is a year-over-year increase of 75.4%, with revenues expected to rise by 65.1% to $48.22 million [18][19]. - Despite a significant upward revision of 53.1% in the consensus EPS estimate for Day One Biopharmaceuticals over the last 30 days, it currently has a negative Earnings ESP of -29.00%, complicating predictions for beating the consensus EPS estimate [19][20].