Various project ramp-ups set to boost global lithium output in 2026

Core Insights - Global lithium production is projected to increase significantly, with a 19.7% rise in 2025 to reach 338,300 tonnes, and a further 15.0% increase in 2026 to 389,100 tonnes, driven by emerging producers and established players [1] Group 1: Regional Production Forecasts - Argentina's lithium output is expected to surge by 42.5% in 2026 to 35,700 tonnes, fueled by new projects like the 3Q project, Mariana, and Salar de Centenario–Ratones, along with the upcoming Hombre Muerto West mine and Sal de Oro Phase II [2] - China's lithium mine output is anticipated to grow by 16.9% to 68,500 tonnes in 2026, supported by the ramp-up of the Lakkor Tso and Lijiagou projects, as well as expansions at the Xiangyuan mine [3] - Australia's lithium production is projected to rebound by 6% in 2026, reaching 120,300 tonnes, primarily due to operational enhancements and capacity expansions, particularly at the Kathleen Valley project [4] - Mali is set to emerge as a new lithium producer, with output expected to rise to 17,000 tonnes in 2026 from 11,300 tonnes in 2025, driven by the Goulamina and Bougouni projects [5] - Zimbabwe's lithium production is estimated to increase to 41,900 tonnes in 2026 from 37,600 tonnes in 2025, supported by the Kamativi mine and additional output from the Arcadia and Zulu projects [6] Group 2: Long-term Growth Projections - Global lithium production is forecasted to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8.2% from 2026 to 2035, reaching 792,800 tonnes by 2035 [6]