TS Lombard建议押注美联储下半年降息力度低于预期

Core Viewpoint - TS Lombard macro strategists suggest that as the labor market recovers, traders should bet on fewer interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in the second half of the year than the market expects, which will weaken enthusiasm for the steepening of the U.S. Treasury yield curve [1][2] Group 1 - Under the leadership of Waller, the Federal Reserve is unlikely to overlook a resurgence in the labor market unless there are strong signals of productivity improvement [2] - If this trend continues, the market is more likely to reduce rather than increase short-term easing bets, especially considering the loosening financial environment and strong fiscal impulses that may raise inflation risks later this year [2] - TS Lombard recommends shorting the December 2026 3-month SOFR futures contract (SFRZ6), currently priced at 96.89, with a stop-loss set at a 10 basis point decline in yield [2] Group 2 - If Waller cannot build consensus within the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to implement looser policies due to a potential rebound in the labor market and lack of conclusive evidence for broad productivity improvement, the reduction in short-term easing bets may flatten the yield curve [2] - The market is expected to maintain the view that the 'neutral rate' is close to 3%, which would only push back the timeline for the FOMC to reach that rate, thereby limiting the upside potential for the 10-year Treasury yield [2]