Where Will BYD Stock Be in 5 Years?

Core Insights - BYD, China's leading automaker, has seen its stock rise less than 10% over the past five years despite significant growth in shipments and revenue [1] Group 1: Company Overview - BYD transitioned from a battery maker to a manufacturer of gas-powered vehicles, plug-in hybrid EVs (PHEVs), and battery-powered EVs (BEVs) over the past two decades [2] - The company experienced stagnant auto sales from 2009 to 2020, but sales surged after ceasing gas-only car production in 2022 and expanding its PHEV and BEV offerings [2] Group 2: Growth Metrics - BYD's total annual vehicle sales are projected to increase from 427,302 units in 2020 to 4.6 million units by 2025 [6] - In 2025, BYD is expected to sell 2.26 million BEVs, surpassing Tesla as the world's top BEV maker for the first time [6] - Revenue is anticipated to grow from 153.5 billion yuan ($22.2 billion) in 2020 to 847.4 billion yuan ($122.7 billion) in 2025, representing a more than fivefold increase [6] Group 3: Profitability Expectations - Analysts forecast BYD's net income to rise from 4.2 billion yuan ($0.6 billion) in 2020 to 35.1 billion yuan ($5.1 billion) in 2025, an increase of over eight times [7] - However, this net income would reflect a 13% year-over-year decline from 2024 [7] Group 4: Competitive Positioning - BYD is facing margin pressures due to inflation and increased competition in the cooling EV market [8] - The company is addressing these challenges by focusing on higher-margin premium vehicles and PHEVs, producing cost-efficient components, and leveraging its scale to reduce expenses [8] Group 5: Future Stock Outlook - From 2025 to 2027, BYD's revenue is expected to grow at a 15% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) [9] - Despite this growth, BYD's stock trades at less than 1 times this year's sales, likely due to trade tensions, slowing EV market growth, and macroeconomic challenges in China [9]