HBM to Report Q4 Earnings: What's in Store for the Stock?

Core Viewpoint - HudBay Minerals (HBM) is expected to report a significant year-over-year improvement in earnings for Q4 2025, with an estimated EPS of 40 cents, reflecting a 122.2% increase from 18 cents in Q4 2024 [1][2]. Financial Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Q4 2025 EPS is 0.40, with a range of estimates from 0.32 to 0.46 [2]. - Year-over-year growth estimates for EPS are 122.22% for Q4 2025, 62.50% for Q1 2026, 75.00% for the current year, and 86.97% for the next year [2]. Earnings Surprise History - HudBay Minerals has beaten Zacks Consensus Estimates in two of the last four quarters, with an average surprise of 40.68% [3][4]. Factors Influencing Q4 Performance - The anticipated recovery in Q4 performance is attributed to deferred copper shipments and strong production in October, alongside effective cost controls and high gold prices [7][10]. - A deferral of 20,000-tonne copper concentrate shipment from Peru is expected to positively impact sales [8]. - Despite challenges in Q3 due to wildfires and social unrest, the operational environment is characterized as manageable, with strong production in October [9]. Production and Cost Management - Gold production is projected to slightly fall below guidance due to a power outage, but operational efficiency has improved, with cash costs declining to $379 per ounce [10][12]. - Cost-control initiatives have led to a tightening of cash cost guidance, which is expected to support earnings [12]. Market Performance - HudBay Minerals shares have increased by 225.5% over the past year, outperforming the industry growth of 48.9% and the S&P 500's return of 13.6% [15]. - The company has also outperformed peers like SSR Mining and Wheaton Precious Metals, which saw share increases of 146.3% and 105%, respectively [17].