Walmart Q4 Preview: Investors Should Fade Retailer, Market Expert Says Rally 'Priced Into The Stock'

Core Viewpoint - Walmart is expected to report strong fourth-quarter earnings, with revenue projected at $189.18 billion, an increase from $180.55 billion in the same quarter last year, and earnings per share anticipated to rise to 73 cents from 66 cents [2][3]. Earnings Estimates - Analysts predict Walmart's fourth-quarter revenue will be $189.18 billion, marking a year-over-year increase of approximately 4.5% [2]. - The expected earnings per share for the fourth quarter is 73 cents, up from 66 cents in the previous year [2]. Analyst Insights - Walmart has consistently exceeded revenue estimates for over 15 consecutive quarters and earnings estimates in seven of the last eight quarters [2][3]. - Market experts suggest that while Walmart's stock may perform well post-earnings, it may not sustain a rally due to high expectations already priced into the stock [4]. - Walmart's price-to-earnings ratio is noted to be 46, higher than most of the "Magnificent Seven" stocks, indicating a premium valuation [5]. CEO Transition - The upcoming earnings report will be the first under new CEO John Furner, with expectations of continued market share gains and stable comparable sales growth in the 4%-5% range [6]. Recent Performance - Walmart has shown consistent U.S. comparable sales growth in the range of 4.5%-4.8% over the last four quarters [7]. - The company's international sales have also seen a year-over-year increase of 10.8% [8]. Key Items to Watch - Investors are keen to see how consumer spending trends are reflected in the earnings report, particularly whether there is a shift from name-brand to private-label products [8]. - Strong growth in both U.S. and international segments, along with positive guidance for the next fiscal year, is anticipated to impact major stock market indexes and consumer staple ETFs significantly [9]. Stock Performance - As of the latest report, Walmart's stock is trading at $128.63, down 0.2%, with a year-to-date increase of 14.1% and a 52-week increase of 23.9% [11].