Are These 3 Energy Stocks Set to Beat Q4 Earnings Estimates?

Core Insights - The energy sector is experiencing contrasting trends in oil and natural gas prices, leading to an intriguing earnings season for energy companies [1] Oil and Natural Gas Pricing Trends - In Q4 2024, average monthly WTI crude prices were $71.99, $69.95, and $70.12 per barrel, while in Q4 2025, they dropped to $60.89, $60.06, and $57.97, indicating a significant year-over-year decline due to global oversupply and OPEC+ production cuts [2] - Conversely, U.S. Henry Hub average natural gas prices rose from $2.20 in October to $3.01 in December 2024, and further increased to $3.19, $3.79, and $4.26 in Q4 2025, showing a positive year-over-year trend [3] Energy Sector Earnings Performance - Approximately 45.8% of S&P 500 oil and energy companies reported Q4 results, with earnings growth of 27.1% year over year despite a 1.3% decline in revenues, indicating strong performance quality as 81.8% exceeded EPS and revenue expectations [4] - The blended outlook for Q4 2025 suggests earnings growth of 13.7% year over year, a significant increase from 3.2% in Q3, although revenues are projected to decline slightly by 0.4%, indicating profit gains driven by margin expansion and cost discipline [5] Company-Specific Insights - TechnipFMC plc (FTI) has an Earnings ESP of +1.61% and a Zacks Rank 2, indicating a high likelihood of an earnings beat, with a consensus estimate of 51 cents per share, reflecting a 5.6% decrease from the prior year [9][11] - Transocean Ltd. (RIG) has an Earnings ESP of +5.88% and a Zacks Rank 3, with a consensus estimate of 9 cents per share, indicating a 200% increase from the prior year [12] - Targa Resources Corp. (TRGP) has an Earnings ESP of +0.18% and a Zacks Rank 3, with a consensus estimate of $2.37 per share, reflecting a 64.6% increase from the prior year [14]