Target(US:TGT) Benzinga·2026-02-18 18:00Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve Bank of New York published a paper indicating that 90% of the costs from Trump's tariffs are borne by U.S. consumers and companies, contradicting the White House's stance that foreign exporters are responsible for these costs [1][3]. Group 1: Economic Analysis - The paper's findings suggest that foreign exporters are not absorbing tariff costs but are instead passing them on to American buyers [2][3]. - The National Economic Council director criticized the paper for its narrow focus on prices, arguing that it overlooked wage growth and benefits from onshoring [3]. Group 2: Public and Political Reaction - The comments from the National Economic Council director sparked a strong online reaction, with some commentators labeling the Trump economic team as divided and lacking credibility [4]. - The Tax Foundation estimated that tariffs would cost the average U.S. household $1,000 by 2025, aligning with the consensus that import taxes are primarily borne by domestic consumers [4]. Group 3: Market Predictions - Prediction markets indicate a 26% chance that the Supreme Court will rule in favor of Trump's tariffs, which could lead to refunds exceeding $130 billion and impact American trade policy [5]. - A separate market estimates an 18% chance that importers will receive refunds, suggesting limited expectations for consumer reimbursement even if the court rules against the tariffs [6]. Group 4: Retail Sector Insights - Traders are closely monitoring Walmart's upcoming earnings report for any commentary on tariffs, as the retailer has reached a record customer penetration of 72% of U.S. households, indicating a shift towards budget-conscious shopping [6].