美高梅中国股价受母公司费用上调影响暴跌，机构关注股息政策

Core Viewpoint - The recent stock price volatility of MGM China (02282.HK) is directly related to the controversy surrounding the increase in licensing and branding fees imposed by its parent company, MGM International (MGM.N) [1] Group 1: Stock Price Movement - On December 29, 2025, Morgan Stanley reported that starting in 2026, MGM China will increase its licensing fee from 1.75% to 3.5% of monthly net revenue, resulting in an additional annual cost of HKD 1.2 billion [1] - Following this announcement, MGM China's stock price plummeted by 17%, closing at HKD 12.91, with a market value loss of approximately HKD 10.2 billion and trading volume surging to HKD 610 million, an increase of 8-9 times compared to usual [1] Group 2: Reasons for Stock Price Fluctuation - The fee increase is based on MGM China's performance improvement, with a projected 1.7 times increase in market share of total gaming revenue by 2025, reaching 16.2%, and a 1.6 times increase in adjusted EBITDAR to USD 1.203 billion [2] - The payment is directed to MGM B&D, a non-listed entity jointly owned by MGM International and Pansy Ho, with Citic Securities acknowledging the rationale behind the adjustment but noting insufficient communication exacerbated negative market sentiment [2] Group 3: Market Reaction - Morgan Stanley estimates that the increased fees will account for 15.2% of MGM China's EBITDA in 2026, significantly higher than competitors like Sands China (approximately 5%) and Galaxy Entertainment (zero), leading to valuation discounts [2] - Despite MGM China's price-to-earnings ratio being only 11.4 times (compared to Galaxy Entertainment's 17 times), investor sentiment remains cautious due to perceived prioritization of parent company interests [2] Group 4: Institutional Perspectives - Institutional focus has shifted to dividend policies, with Citic Securities suggesting that increasing the dividend payout ratio from 50% to over 53% could mitigate the impact of rising costs, which is considered a manageable threshold [4] - In January 2026, Macau's gaming revenue increased by 24% year-on-year to MOP 22.6 billion, with mass market revenue accounting for 70-75%, supporting the industry's fundamental profitability recovery [4] Group 5: Future Developments - The fee controversy highlights issues regarding corporate governance transparency, and further increases in licensing fees or unmet dividend expectations may continue to suppress valuations [5] - The Macau gaming industry faces macro risks such as regulatory policies and intensified competition [5]