Di Yi Cai Jing·2026-02-19 00:16Market Overview - The short-term probability of interest rate cuts in the US stock market appears low, making it difficult to provide support [6] - After a recent sell-off in the artificial intelligence (AI) sector, US stocks have stabilized, with the S&P 500 index rising by 38.09 points, or 0.56%, to 6881.31 points as of February 18 [1] - The "Tech Seven" stocks, including Nvidia and Amazon, saw significant gains, with Nvidia's stock rising nearly 1.63% due to a new agreement with Meta [2] Technology Sector Insights - Despite some Wall Street firms believing the AI sell-off is nearing its end, skepticism remains among investors regarding the impact of large capital expenditures on tech giants' cash flow and buyback ratios [1][2] - The software sector has faced a significant decline, with a drop of approximately 24% over the past three months, although future earnings estimates are projected to be about 5% higher [2] - High capital expenditures from major cloud service providers are expected to account for 92% of their operating cash flow this year, surpassing investment intensity seen in the late 1990s [4] Earnings and Profitability - The S&P 500 is expected to report double-digit earnings growth for the fifth consecutive quarter, with profit margins reaching a record 12.6% [5] - The disparity in performance between the equal-weighted S&P 500 and the market-cap weighted index is attributed to the "Tech Seven" stocks' negative returns of -5.9% [4] AI and Software Market Dynamics - Traders are increasingly warming to the idea of buying software stocks at lower prices, despite the recent sell-off [3] - AI technology is viewed as a powerful enhancement rather than a fundamental replacement, relying heavily on existing record systems for data [3] Federal Reserve and Economic Outlook - The Federal Reserve's recent meeting minutes indicate a cautious approach to interest rate cuts, with a focus on inflation risks [7] - The labor market's stability and the anticipated growth in AI capital expenditures are expected to drive GDP beyond expectations, complicating the outlook for inflation [8]