The 2026 Software Stock Sell-Off: AI Disruption Fear, Broken Logic, or Something Else Entirely?

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in software stocks is attributed to valuation risk rather than fears of AI disruption, which may be an excuse for the sell-off [3][6][13]. Group 1: Market Performance - Many popular software stocks, including Palantir Technologies, Adobe, Salesforce, and ServiceNow, have seen declines of approximately 22% to 30% year-to-date in 2026 [2]. - Despite strong financial results and AI being a potential growth catalyst, these stocks have faced significant sell-offs [2][4]. Group 2: Valuation Risk - The concept of valuation risk suggests that stocks trading at high valuations may be subject to market corrections, even if their underlying fundamentals remain strong [7]. - The S&P 500's rise of 78% from 2023 to the end of 2025 has led to many investors being unfamiliar with the implications of valuation risk [7]. Group 3: Company-Specific Insights - Palantir's stock has increased over 80% since the beginning of 2025, with a price-to-sales ratio expanding by over 20% to 75, despite a 22% decline year-to-date [9]. - Adobe, Salesforce, and ServiceNow have also outperformed the S&P 500 over the past 15 years, despite recent declines [10]. Group 4: Broader Market Trends - Other software companies, such as Snowflake, CrowdStrike, and Shopify, exhibit high price-to-sales multiples (14, 23, and 13 respectively), raising concerns about their valuations given their current financial performance [12]. - The overall sell-off in software stocks may reflect a more discerning investor approach to evaluating competitive advantages and sustainability [13].