2026年金价新逻辑，专访世界黄金协会美洲区CEO：全球央行连续16年净买入，一场“结构性变化”正在发生

Core Viewpoint - The global gold market is undergoing a structural transformation driven by central bank demand and heightened risk aversion, making gold an essential liquidity buffer in asset allocation [1]. Group 1: Key Drivers of Gold Prices - In 2026, the primary driver for gold valuation is the increased risk and uncertainty in the macroeconomic environment, influenced by geopolitical tensions and localized financial market pressures [2]. - The traditional negative correlation between gold prices and U.S. 10-year Treasury yields has weakened, primarily due to other supporting factors such as geopolitical risks and strong central bank purchases offsetting the negative impact of rising real interest rates [2][3]. - Despite fluctuations, gold's stable price performance has attracted significant cash inflows, creating a positive growth momentum [2]. Group 2: Central Bank Gold Purchases - Global central banks have maintained a net buying trend for 16 consecutive years, indicating a significant structural change in the gold market [6]. - Although central bank gold purchases slowed to 863 tons in 2025, this figure remains above historical averages, reflecting ongoing demand driven by gold's crisis performance and inflation-hedging properties [6]. - Emerging market central banks view gold as a crucial tool for hedging geopolitical risks, with their gold reserves constituting about 15% of foreign exchange reserves, indicating substantial growth potential [6]. Group 3: Gold as a High-Quality Liquid Asset - Gold is increasingly viewed as a reliable, non-sovereign alternative to enhance portfolio resilience and liquidity, especially during market stress periods [7]. - Although gold is not officially classified as a High-Quality Liquid Asset (HQLA) under Basel III, its market performance demonstrates characteristics of such assets, including deep market liquidity and orderly trading during volatility [6][7]. Group 4: Gold's Role in Diversified Investment Portfolios - In a world of persistent inflation volatility, traditional 60/40 investment portfolios are struggling, and gold is seen as a stabilizing component in diversified portfolios [10]. - The Qaurum model indicates that gold typically improves risk-adjusted returns in various macro environments, particularly when stock-bond correlations rise [10]. - The World Gold Council does not predict gold prices but outlines hypothetical scenarios where worsening macroeconomic or geopolitical conditions could drive prices higher [11].