Poland's Orlen misses profit expectations in Q4, as low gas and oil prices weigh

Core Viewpoint - Orlen reported higher-than-expected adjusted core earnings due to strong refining results, despite a net profit miss caused by asset impairments and lower oil and gas prices [1][3]. Financial Performance - Orlen's adjusted EBITDA LIFO for Q4 2025 was 12.15 billion zlotys ($3.40 billion), a 15% decline from the previous year but above analysts' expectations of 11.4 billion zlotys [3]. - The company's quarterly net profit was 3.13 billion zlotys, falling short of the anticipated 4.8 billion zlotys [3]. Impairments and Losses - The net impairment losses totaled 3.34 billion zlotys, including a 2.2 billion zloty impairment in the downstream segment, which encompasses refining and petrochemical operations [4]. Market Conditions - The refining margin increased significantly in Q4 due to sanctions and Ukrainian drone attacks affecting Russian diesel exports, which helped mitigate the impact of a broader commodity slump, including a nearly 15% drop in Brent crude prices [2]. Future Outlook - Orlen plans to increase capital spending to 36.3 billion zlotys in 2026, up from 32.6 billion zlotys in the previous year, with key projects including Poland's first offshore wind farm and a gas-fired power plant [5].