张尧浠:地缘风险反复 金价维持调整待攀升预期

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices rebounded on February 18, recovering from previous losses but faced resistance at the mid-line, indicating a preference for oscillation and adjustment until stability above the mid-line and short-term moving averages is achieved [1][11]. Price Movement - Gold opened at $4,876.74 per ounce, recorded a low of $4,853.93, and later reached a high of $5,011.16 before closing at $4,977.49, with a daily fluctuation of $157.23 and a gain of $100.75, or 2.07% [12][14]. Influencing Factors - The price increase was supported by technical buying and geopolitical tensions, particularly the lack of agreements in U.S.-Russia-Ukraine talks, alongside expectations of significant rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which bolstered gold prices above the $5,000 mark [3][14]. - However, the strong tone of the Federal Reserve's meeting minutes and comments from officials regarding inflation and potential rate hikes created resistance, leading to a pullback [3][14]. Market Outlook - The outlook for February 19 indicates that gold prices may continue to face downward pressure due to the strong Federal Reserve meeting minutes and mid-line resistance, although support from the 30-day moving average remains intact [3][14]. - Geopolitical risks persist, and some Federal Reserve officials suggest there is still considerable room for rate cuts, indicating that bullish factors are still present [3][14]. Technical Analysis - The current technical setup shows gold prices below the mid-line and short-term moving averages, with bears in control, but the 30-day moving average has not been breached, suggesting a preference for oscillation [8][19]. - The monthly chart indicates that after a dip in January, gold has rebounded and remains within a new bullish market space, suggesting a potential for further strength after a period of adjustment [6][17]. Key Data to Watch - Upcoming data to monitor includes U.S. initial jobless claims, trade balance, Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index, and pending home sales, with expectations leaning towards bearish impacts on gold prices [5][16].