黄力晨:市场避险情绪升温 支撑黄金价格反弹

Core Viewpoint - The recent easing of geopolitical tensions, breakthroughs in US-Iran negotiations, and closed-door talks between Russia and Ukraine have reduced market risk aversion, leading to a decline in gold prices. The market is advised to focus on support levels at $4,850 and $4,800, with resistance at $4,950 and $5,000 [1][5]. Market Analysis - Gold prices experienced significant fluctuations due to changing expectations around interest rate cuts and geopolitical developments. Strong non-farm payroll data initially dampened expectations for mid-year rate cuts, putting pressure on gold. However, subsequent CPI data indicated cooling inflation, which supported a rebound in gold prices [2][6]. - The recent indirect negotiations between the US and Iran yielded limited progress, and the closed-door talks between Russia and Ukraine ended without consensus, which reignited risk aversion and pushed gold prices higher [7]. Technical Indicators - On the daily chart, gold faced resistance after a rebound, with key support levels at approximately $4,950 and $4,900. The recent upward movement saw gold prices reach $5,010, which is a critical resistance level. If gold can stabilize above this level, attention will shift to the $5,100 resistance [3][7]. - Technical indicators such as the 5-day moving average, MACD, KDJ, and RSI suggest a potential need for adjustment in gold prices, indicating a cautious outlook in the short term [3][7].