Russia's oil and gas revenue seen halving y/y in February

Core Viewpoint - Russia's oil and gas revenue is projected to nearly halve year-on-year in February 2026, primarily due to a stronger rouble and declining oil prices, with expected revenue at 410 billion roubles ($5.35 billion) [1][1][1] Revenue Analysis - The oil and gas sector is crucial for the Russian economy, contributing over 20% to federal budget revenues, which have been significantly impacted by increased defense and security expenditures since the onset of the military campaign in Ukraine in February 2022 [1][1][1] - Monthly revenue is anticipated to rise by 3.1% from January, attributed to a subsidy known as a damper payment, which oil refineries typically receive [1][1][1] - The expected damper payment from oil companies to the state this month is 42 billion roubles, as selling fuel abroad has become less profitable due to current fuel prices [1][1][1] Year-to-Date Projections - Cumulatively, Russia's oil and gas revenue for January and February 2026 is expected to total 800 billion roubles, a decrease from 1.56 trillion roubles in the same period of 2025 [1][1][1] - The budget forecasts total income from oil and gas sales for the year at 8.92 trillion roubles, with overall budget revenue for 2026 projected at 40.283 trillion roubles [1][1][1] - In the previous year, federal budget revenue from oil and gas fell by 24% to 8.48 trillion roubles, marking the lowest level since 2020 [1][1][1]