TransUnion 2026 Originations Forecast Shows Continued Positive Momentum Amidst Moderate Expansion

Core Insights - TransUnion's 2026 credit originations forecast indicates continued growth in mortgage and unsecured personal loans, while other credit products show mixed performance [1][2] - The report highlights a normalization in the credit landscape, with slower growth rates expected compared to 2025 [2][4] Mortgage Insights - Mortgage originations are projected to continue their rebound, with both purchase and refinance activities contributing to growth [2][24] - In Q3 2025, mortgage originations rose 6.5% year-over-year to 1.34 million, driven by increased purchase demand and stronger refinance activity [24] - Home-equity originations have shown consistent growth, increasing 14.3% year-over-year in Q3 2025 [24][22] Unsecured Personal Loans Insights - Unsecured personal loans are expected to see significant growth, with an annual increase of 11.2% projected for 2026 [7] - In Q3 2025, originations reached a record 7.2 million, with subprime borrowers driving a 32.5% year-over-year increase [15] - Total unsecured personal loan balances climbed to a record $276 billion in Q4 2025, with 26.4 million consumers carrying a balance [15][18] Credit Card Insights - Credit card originations are expected to see a modest increase in 2026, following near-record growth in 2025 [3][9] - The total number of credit cards reached 581 million in Q4 2025, with total credit card balances at $1.15 trillion [10] - The borrower-level delinquency rate for credit cards was 2.58% in Q4 2025, reflecting a slight increase from previous years [10][14] Auto Loan Insights - Auto loan originations rose 6.2% year-over-year to 6.7 million in Q3 2025, with growth seen across all risk tiers [32] - Average monthly payments for new vehicles increased to $782, while used vehicle payments rose to $538 [30][32] - The account-level delinquency rate for auto loans reached 1.50% in Q4 2025, indicating a slight increase year-over-year [30][32] General Market Trends - The overall lending activity is expected to remain measured as lenders adopt a disciplined approach to growth, focusing on risk management [4][6] - Consumer demand for credit remains strong across various risk tiers, with potential for further strengthening if interest rates decline [4][6]