Nutrien's Earnings Miss Estimates in Q4, Revenues Up Y/Y

Core Insights - Nutrien Ltd. reported a significant profit increase to $580 million or $1.18 per share for Q4 2025, up from $118 million or 23 cents in the same quarter last year [1] - Adjusted earnings per share, excluding one-time items, were 83 cents, an increase from 31 cents year-over-year, although it fell short of the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 87 cents [1] - Sales rose approximately 5% year-over-year to $5,340 million, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $5,207.3 million [1] Segment Performance - The Nutrien Ag Solutions (Retail) segment experienced a 1% decline in sales year-over-year, totaling $3,144 million, attributed to lower sales volumes and reduced demand for phosphate, yet it exceeded the estimate of $2,883.3 million [2] - The Potash division saw a 37% year-over-year increase in sales, reaching $736 million, although it missed the estimate of $857.9 million due to lower sales volumes [3] - The Nitrogen segment reported sales of $1,093 million, an 11% increase year-over-year, beating the estimate of $657.6 million, despite a decline in sales volumes due to facility shutdowns [4] - The Phosphate segment generated sales of $483 million, up around 17% year-over-year, exceeding the estimate of $288.1 million [4] Financial Overview - At the end of the quarter, Nutrien had cash and cash equivalents of $701 million, down approximately 18% year-over-year, while long-term debt increased by 5.3% to $9,350 million [5] - Cash provided from operating activities was reported at $2,977 million for the quarter [5] Future Outlook - The company projects retail adjusted EBITDA for 2026 to be between $1.75 billion and $1.95 billion, indicating high-single digit growth in proprietary products gross margins and mid-single digit increases in North American crop nutrient sales volumes [6] - Expected potash sales volumes are projected to be between 14.1 million and 14.8 million tons, while nitrogen sales volumes are forecasted at 9.2 million to 9.7 million tons [7] - Capital expenditures are anticipated to be between $2 billion and $2.1 billion, including $400 million for growth investments [8]