2026年金价新逻辑 专访世界黄金协会美洲区CEO：全球央行连续16年净买入 一场“结构性变化”正在发生

Core Insights - The global economic landscape remains volatile in 2026, with gold becoming a focal point for investors due to its perceived value as a safe-haven asset amid rising geopolitical tensions and financial market uncertainties [1]. Group 1: Key Drivers of Gold Market - Gold is undergoing a "structural transformation" driven by central bank purchases and heightened risk aversion, establishing itself as an essential liquidity buffer in asset allocation [1]. - In 2026, the primary driver for gold valuation is the increased risk and uncertainty in the macroeconomic environment, significantly boosting demand for gold as a high-quality safe-haven asset [2]. - The relationship between gold prices and U.S. Treasury yields has weakened, primarily due to other supporting factors like geopolitical risks and strong central bank purchases, which counterbalance the negative impact of rising real interest rates [3][4]. Group 2: Central Bank Purchases - Central banks have maintained a net buying trend for 16 consecutive years, indicating a significant structural change in the gold market, despite a slowdown in purchases in 2025 [6]. - In 2025, central bank gold purchases totaled 863 tons, lower than the historical highs of over 1,000 tons from 2022 to 2024, yet still above historical averages [6]. - Emerging market central banks view gold as a crucial hedge against geopolitical risks, with their gold reserves constituting about 15% of foreign exchange reserves, indicating substantial growth potential [7]. Group 3: Gold as a Liquid Asset - Gold is increasingly viewed as a reliable alternative to U.S. Treasury securities, especially in light of concerns over U.S. fiscal sustainability and debt levels [8]. - During market stress, gold has demonstrated superior liquidity compared to long-term U.S. Treasuries, characterized by deep market depth and stable bid-ask spreads [9]. - Reserve managers are increasingly considering gold as a non-sovereign asset to enhance portfolio resilience and liquidity buffers [10]. Group 4: Investment Strategies - In a world of persistent inflation volatility, traditional 60/40 investment portfolios are struggling, with gold historically improving risk-adjusted returns by enhancing diversification and reducing drawdowns [12]. - The World Gold Council does not provide specific gold price forecasts but outlines hypothetical scenarios in its 2026 gold outlook, indicating that worsening macroeconomic or geopolitical conditions could drive prices higher [13].