Friday Could Be a Big Day for Markets

Economic Indicators - The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) will publish the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index on February 20, which is closely monitored by the Federal Reserve and could influence monetary policy for 2026 [1] - The PCE Price Index is preferred by the Fed over the Consumer Price Index (CPI) because it provides a broader measure of inflation and quickly reflects changes in consumer behavior [2] Inflation Trends - Recent CPI data showed consumer prices rose 2.4% annually in January, slightly below the expected 2.5%, with core CPI (excluding food and energy) at 2.5%, the lowest since April 2021 [3] - If the upcoming PCE Price Index confirms a moderation in inflation, it would align with the CPI report, indicating inflation is moving closer to the Fed's target [4] Monetary Policy Implications - A confirmation of moderating inflation would give the Fed room to implement additional interest rate cuts, with the futures market currently pricing in two to three quarter-percentage point cuts in 2026 [5] - Lower interest rates or the expectation of them could positively impact the stock market by reducing borrowing costs for companies and consumers, potentially boosting spending [6]