特朗普阵营的坚定降息派动摇了？美联储理事米兰：劳动力市场改善可令今年少些降息

Group 1 - Stephen Miran, a Federal Reserve governor, has retracted his previous stance advocating for significant interest rate cuts this year, citing stronger-than-expected economic performance in the U.S. [1][3] - Miran now believes that the labor market is performing better than his earlier expectations and that commodity inflation is proving to be more persistent, leading him to adjust his views on interest rate cuts [1][4] - Previously, Miran anticipated that interest rates would drop below 2.25% by the end of the year, but he now leans towards a more moderate position of reducing rates to below 2.75% by the end of 2026 [1][4] Group 2 - Miran's latest position suggests a cumulative interest rate cut of 1 percentage point from the current level of 3.5% to 3.75% this year, although he remains one of the most dovish officials within the Federal Reserve [4] - The median forecast among most Federal Reserve officials indicates only a 25 basis point cut this year, contrasting with Miran's more aggressive outlook [4] - The interview highlights a growing divergence between Miran's views and the economic policy stance of the White House, where he previously served as the chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers [2][5] Group 3 - Miran has consistently voted for lower interest rates in the four Federal Reserve policy meetings he participated in, although he did not disclose his voting intentions for the upcoming March meeting [6] - The market generally expects the Federal Reserve to maintain its current interest rate levels in the next meeting, continuing the pause established in the previous month [6]