Smaller Sugar Output in Brazil Supports Prices

Price Movements - March NY world sugar 11 is up +0.27 (+1.95%) and May London ICE white sugar 5 is up +4.90 (+1.22%) [1] - Sugar prices are climbing, with NY sugar reaching a 1-week high due to signs of smaller sugar output in Brazil [2] Production Insights - Brazil's sugar production in the Center-South fell -36% year-on-year in the second half of January to only 5,000 MT, although cumulative output for 2025-26 through January rose by +0.9% year-on-year to 40.240 MMT [2] - The ratio of cane crushed for sugar increased to 50.74% in 2025/26 from 48.14% in 2024/25 [2] - India's sugar output from October 1 to January 15 is up +22% year-on-year to 15.9 MMT, with the total production estimate for 2025/26 raised to 31 MMT, reflecting an increase of +18.8% year-on-year [4] Export Dynamics - India's government approved an additional 500,000 MT of sugar for export for the 2025/26 season, adding to the 1.5 MMT approved in November [5] - The reduction in sugar used for ethanol production in India may allow for increased sugar exports [4] Global Supply Outlook - Analysts expect a global sugar surplus of 3.4 MMT in the 2026/27 crop year, following an 8.3 MMT surplus in 2025/26 [3] - Covrig Analytics raised its 2025/26 global sugar surplus estimate to 4.7 MMT, projecting a decrease to 1.4 MMT in 2026/27 due to weak prices discouraging production [6]