Help is on the way at the Fed, researcher predicts

Federal Reserve Insights - The Federal Reserve shows little inclination towards rate cuts, with discussions leaning towards raising the target rate instead [1][2] - New regional Fed presidents believe tariffs are inflationary and oppose rate cuts, which has led to a contrary effect on inflation [2][3] Economic Growth and Deregulation - Anticipation exists that the Fed will not cut rates until a new chairman is appointed, with potential cuts expected in the second half of the year [3][5] - Significant fiscal policy changes, including 100% expensing for companies, are expected to drive investment and consumer aid, with tax refunds increasing over 20% year-over-year [4][5] Fed Models and Predictions - Current Fed economic models predict a growth rate of only 1.7%, which is viewed as unrealistic given the actual growth rate of around 4% [5][6] - The Fed's models do not account for the impact of deregulation and supply-side tax cuts, which are believed to lower inflation and stimulate economic growth [11][12] Future Economic Outlook - There is a belief that the economy could grow by 5% with a CPI inflation rate of less than 1% by 2026, especially if geopolitical tensions are resolved [15][17] - The combination of deregulation, tax reform, and energy dominance is seen as essential for enhancing productivity and achieving growth without inflation [17][18]