Oil prices hit six-month highs after Trump warns Iran of 'bad things' if there's no deal

Oil Market Overview - Oil prices are near six-month highs, with Brent crude futures trading at $71.53 per barrel and U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures at $66.30, both down 0.2% [2] - The energy market is closely monitoring supply risks in the Middle East, particularly due to geopolitical tensions involving Iran [2][10] Geopolitical Tensions - U.S. President Donald Trump has warned Iran of "really bad things" if a deal over its nuclear program is not reached, indicating potential military action within 10 to 15 days [3][4] - The U.S. has increased military presence in the Middle East, with reports suggesting possible military action against Iran as early as this weekend [5][10] Iran's Response - Iran has stated it will respond "decisively" to any military aggression and has conducted military drills in the Strait of Hormuz [6] - Joint naval drills with Russia have also been reported, indicating Iran's readiness for potential conflict [6][7] Market Dynamics - Despite a well-supplied global oil market, concerns about Iran, increased buying by China for stockpiling, and high freight rates are supporting oil prices [10][11] - Analysts suggest that geopolitical tensions, particularly regarding Iran, are the most significant factor influencing current oil prices [11] Strategic Insights - Barclays strategists note that while equity markets have largely ignored geopolitical tensions, rising tensions could lead to limited military strikes targeting Iran's nuclear and ballistic missile capabilities [13] - The administration's focus on affordability for U.S. consumers may limit its tolerance for prolonged high oil prices and casualties, suggesting that any imminent conflict may be short-lived [14]