张尧浠:地缘局势风险难稳 金价震荡调整仍待走强

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices experienced fluctuations and closed higher on February 19, driven by ongoing tensions between the U.S. and Iran, although the strengthening U.S. dollar and better-than-expected economic data limited bullish momentum [1][11]. Market Performance - Gold opened at $4977.09 per ounce, recorded a low of $4959.36, and reached a high of $5022.08 during the day, ultimately closing at $4996.35, with a daily fluctuation of $62.72 and a gain of $19.26, or 0.39% [1][11]. Short-term Outlook - On February 20, gold prices are expected to show narrow fluctuations, with resistance from the mid-line on the daily chart and support from various moving averages below. The geopolitical situation continues to support gold prices, indicating a potential for further upward movement [3][13]. Geopolitical Factors - Increasing signs suggest that the U.S. is preparing for military action against Iran, which historically has contributed to gold price increases. Temporary easing in tensions is unlikely to reverse the overall trend, potentially creating entry opportunities for investors [4][15]. Monetary Policy Context - Recent U.S. economic data has not significantly impacted interest rate cut expectations. The upcoming change in Federal Reserve leadership, with former board member Waller set to replace Powell in May, aligns with the Trump administration's preference for low interest rates, leaving room for potential cuts in the medium to long term. This supports a bullish outlook for gold prices throughout the year [5][15]. Technical Analysis - On a monthly basis, gold prices have rebounded after touching a key support level, maintaining a bullish trend. The market remains above the 5-month moving average, indicating that the bearish sentiment from January has subsided, and a new bullish outlook is in place. However, the momentum for bulls may weaken, suggesting potential for further adjustments before another upward movement [5][17]. Trading Strategy - For trading, short positions should rely on resistance from the mid-line, while long positions should depend on support from the 30-day moving average. Specific entry and exit points for gold and silver have been identified, with support levels at $4950 or $4900 and resistance levels at $5020 or $5070 for gold [8][18].