Kalshi’s Crowd Bets Rival Fed Economists—Could Markets Really Predict Monetary Policy?

Prediction markets are gaining credibility and controversy at the same time. A recent study suggests that market-based forecasts may now rival traditional economic predictions over several months. Experts argue that such real-money, continuously updated markets could provide policymakers and researchers with a live, information-rich benchmark for macroeconomic expectations. Prediction Markets Rising Accuracy Meets Regulatory Showdown Recent analysis found that Kalshi's implied forecasts for the federal ...