Analysis-Hims & Hers GLP-1 pill gambit backfires, accelerating crackdown on drug compounders

Core Insights - Hims & Hers Health is facing challenges in finding new growth drivers after its original sexual-health franchises have matured, particularly following a controversial launch of weight-loss pills that faced backlash from Novo Nordisk and U.S. regulators [1][2] Company Strategy - Hims announced plans to offer a compounded oral semaglutide pill for $49, which is a version of Novo Nordisk's Wegovy, but retreated after warnings from U.S. FDA officials about the legality of such offerings [2] - The company has been positioning itself as an affordable healthcare provider, even investing in high-profile advertising campaigns [5] Financial Performance - Hims had less than $900 million in sales in 2023 but is projected to exceed $2.3 billion in sales by 2025, with expectations of $620 million in fourth-quarter sales, reflecting a 28% increase [6] - The company's sales growth rate has been robust, ranging from 59% to 94% over the past four years, but is forecasted to decline to around 17% over the next two years [7] Market Context - The obesity drug market is projected to reach annual sales of approximately $100 billion by 2030, with a significant portion expected to come from oral medications [8]