美联储最青睐的通胀指标超预期！美国12月核心PCE物价指数同比3%

Core Insights - The core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation indicator favored by the Federal Reserve exceeded expectations, with a 0.4% increase in December, marking the largest rise in nearly a year [1][9] - Year-over-year core PCE rose to 3% in December, up from 2.8% at the beginning of 2025 [1][12] Inflation Data - December PCE price index increased by 2.9% year-over-year, compared to a previous value of 2.8% [10] - The month-over-month PCE price index rose by 0.4%, matching expectations and the previous month's figure [11] - Core PCE price index increased by 3% year-over-year, surpassing the expected 2.9% [12] - Month-over-month core PCE price index also rose by 0.4%, in line with expectations [13] Economic Indicators - The SuperCore PCE, which excludes certain volatile items, increased by 0.3% month-over-month and 3.3% year-over-year, remaining stable compared to the previous year [3][16] - Service prices continue to drive inflation, with notable increases in legal service prices observed in January [3][16] Consumer Spending and Income - Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) rose by 0.4% month-over-month in December, consistent with expectations [20] - Actual personal consumption expenditures increased by 0.1% month-over-month, down from 0.3% previously [20] - Personal income rose by 0.3% month-over-month, slightly below the expected 0.4% [20] Market Reaction - Following the release of PCE data, U.S. stock futures declined, with the Nasdaq futures down by 0.33%, S&P 500 futures down by 0.24%, and Dow futures down by 0.18% [22] - Market participants continue to bet that the Federal Reserve will not lower interest rates before June [22]