Chang Sha Wan Bao·2026-02-21 04:28Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold and silver prices is attributed to a confluence of monetary cycles, central bank actions, safe-haven demand, and supply-demand dynamics, indicating a robust long-term bullish trend in precious metals [2][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of February 20, gold prices reached $5050 per ounce, marking a 2.4% increase during the holiday period, while silver prices rose to $84.35 per ounce, with an 8.19% increase, significantly outperforming gold [1]. - Domestic gold prices also saw a rise, with T+D gold closing at 1108.5 yuan per gram and retail prices surpassing 1550 yuan per gram, reflecting increased physical and investment demand [1]. Group 2: Underlying Factors - The expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve has anchored price levels, with market predictions suggesting a reduction of 50 to 75 basis points by 2026, enhancing the appeal of non-yielding assets like gold [2]. - Central bank gold purchases are providing a rigid support, with 95% of global central banks planning to increase their gold reserves, maintaining an average monthly purchase of 60 to 70 tons [2]. - Geopolitical tensions and rising credit risks are driving safe-haven demand, as the U.S. debt exceeds $38 trillion, weakening dollar credit and prompting investments in gold to hedge against uncertainties [2]. - Supply constraints are tightening, with global gold mine production growth below 2% and rising extraction costs, while investment, industrial, and reserve demand continue to expand, leading to a widening supply-demand gap [2]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The bullish trend for gold and silver is expected to persist, although short-term volatility may increase, with institutions like Goldman Sachs projecting gold prices to reach $5400 per ounce, and JPMorgan and UBS raising targets to $6200 to $6500 per ounce [3]. - The A-share market is likely to experience a clear transmission effect from the strong performance of gold and silver, benefiting gold mining companies such as Zijin Mining, Shandong Gold, and Hunan Gold, which are expected to see significant earnings elasticity [3]. - The precious metals sector is anticipated to serve as a defensive asset in the face of increased market volatility, providing a hedge against fluctuations in growth and cyclical stocks [3].