兴业证券：2026年关注电新、TMT、新消费等出海机会

Core Viewpoint - The global industrial system is undergoing a significant paradigm shift from "efficiency first" to "security and autonomy," leading to increased demand for infrastructure and industrial construction, with China transitioning from a "final product exporter" to a "global basic industrial provider" [1][39]. Group 1: China's Foreign Trade Trends - China's foreign trade is diversifying and moving towards higher-end products, with exports reaching a historical high of $2.5 trillion in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 5.5% [2]. - The trade surplus surpassed $1 trillion for the first time, marking a significant year-on-year increase of 19.8% [2]. - Net exports contributed 1.64 percentage points to GDP growth in 2025, the second-highest level since 2007 [5]. Group 2: Regional and Product Structure - The diversification of external demand is strengthening, with emerging markets compensating for declines in the U.S. market. Exports to the U.S. fell by 19.79% year-on-year, while exports to ASEAN, Africa, and the Middle East grew by 13.64%, 25.9%, and 9.7%, respectively [8]. - High-end manufacturing products such as electrical machinery, machinery, automobiles, and ships remain the mainstay of exports, contributing 44.10%, 17.67%, 16.05%, and 6.99% to the total export scale [13]. Group 3: Opportunities for Overseas Expansion - In 2026, there are strong overseas opportunities in sectors such as electric new (batteries, grid equipment), machinery, TMT (electronics, communication, gaming), innovative pharmaceuticals, new consumption, shipbuilding, commercial vehicles, automotive parts, and chemical products [57]. - The restructuring of global supply chains is accelerating the globalization of Chinese enterprises' production capacity, with 229 companies establishing production facilities or subsidiaries in ASEAN, India, and Mexico by 2025, nearly doubling from 2024 [29]. Group 4: AI Expansion Cycle - The AI expansion cycle is a core focus in the Chinese capital market, with significant capital expenditure expected from major tech companies. For instance, capital expenditures from major cloud service providers in North America are projected to reach $598.7 billion in 2026, a 67% increase year-on-year [45][46]. - The demand for AI-related hardware is expected to drive growth in related sectors, benefiting domestic manufacturing leaders in robotics and consumer electronics [48]. Group 5: Cultural and Technological Output - Chinese enterprises are also focusing on cultural and technological exports, with significant growth in overseas revenue from IP (e.g., toys, games) and lifestyle brands (e.g., new tea drinks, e-commerce) [49][50]. - The innovative pharmaceutical sector is becoming a key player in the global market, with several new drugs commercialized in the U.S. and Europe, indicating strong potential for further overseas opportunities in 2026 [53].