国泰海通资管董事长陶耿：驭势笃行 再启新程

Core Viewpoint - The global market is experiencing fluctuations influenced by narratives and liquidity, while the domestic capital market in China is showing steady progress with A-shares exhibiting a "slow bull" pattern, highlighted by the Shanghai Composite Index surpassing 4000 points and the total market capitalization of A-shares exceeding 100 trillion yuan for the first time [3][4]. Group 1: Macroeconomic Landscape - The external environment is characterized by internal divisions within the US economy and monetary policy considerations that will dominate global liquidity expectations [5]. - The domestic policy framework for 2026 is shifting towards "stability while seeking progress and improving quality and efficiency," focusing on stimulating domestic demand, promoting technological breakthroughs, and addressing deflationary pressures [5]. - Key tasks include expanding consumer spending and driving industrial upgrades, which will outline a clear investment roadmap for the "14th Five-Year Plan" period [5]. Group 2: Market Outlook - The A-share market is expected to strengthen under the support of policies, funding, and fundamentals, continuing the "long bull" trend [6]. - The policy environment is fostering a stable framework for technological innovation and industrial upgrades, directing resources towards high-efficiency sectors [6]. - The trend of residents shifting asset allocation from real estate to financial assets is evident, with A-share dividend yields remaining attractive compared to government bond yields [6]. - Growth in earnings is anticipated in sectors like new energy, computing, and electronics, while some export chains and consumer service sectors may also rebound [6]. Group 3: Investment Strategy - The "long bull" trend is expected to persist in 2026, with structural opportunities emerging [7]. - Fixed income assets will remain a crucial part of investment portfolios, although the bond market may present fewer trend-based opportunities [7]. - A flexible approach to equity and convertible bonds is recommended to capture certain returns in a volatile market, emphasizing the importance of multi-asset and multi-strategy allocations [7].