国联民生证券：今年美联储继续降息的概率依然不低

Group 1: Economic Outlook - The probability of the Federal Reserve continuing to cut interest rates this year remains high due to structural pressures on the economy and employment [1][16] - The U.S. GDP annualized quarter-on-quarter growth rate unexpectedly declined to 1.4% in the fourth quarter, indicating potential economic risks [1][16] - The K-shaped economic divergence in the U.S. is becoming more pronounced, with middle and low-income groups facing limited consumption capacity due to high inflation and stagnant wages [1][16] Group 2: Market Reactions - The overseas markets experienced significant movements during the Spring Festival, with oil prices leading among major assets due to the Iranian situation, while software stocks faced pressure from AI concerns [2] - The U.S. stock market was buoyed by earnings expectations and a recovery in risk appetite, despite concerns over potential fiscal pressures from the ruling on tariffs [2] Group 3: Geopolitical Factors - Geopolitical events, particularly the U.S.-Iran negotiations and developments in U.S.-China relations, are influencing global risk preferences and commodity prices [7][8] - The upcoming visit of former President Trump to China is seen as a critical moment for risk management and rule reconstruction between the two largest economies [8] Group 4: Tariff Developments - The Supreme Court's ruling that tariffs imposed by Trump were illegal represents a significant setback, leading to the potential return of approximately $175 billion in tariffs, which could exacerbate U.S. fiscal pressures [11][13] - Trump's administration is responding with temporary global tariffs under Section 122, which may reduce the impact of previous tariffs [11] Group 5: Investment Opportunities - Despite concerns over excessive investment in AI, the current adjustment in the AI sector is viewed as healthy, with structural opportunities still present, particularly in scarce hardware and quality model targets [5] - Gold is expected to regain its pricing value as volatility stabilizes, while oil prices may improve as supply-demand dynamics shift in the first quarter [7]