首席展望｜国海富兰克林基金徐成：港股依旧“物美价廉”，看好科技成长与内需修复

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the optimistic outlook of foreign investment banks towards China's economic transformation and market opportunities in 2026, with recommendations to overweight A-shares and Hong Kong stocks due to favorable valuations and potential for recovery [1][4]. Investment Outlook - Goldman Sachs suggests a high allocation to A-shares and Hong Kong stocks for 2026, while Morgan Stanley upgrades the rating of mainland China and Hong Kong stock markets to "overweight" [1]. - UBS believes that policy support, improved corporate earnings, and capital inflows could drive A-share valuations higher [1]. Market Valuation - The Hong Kong market is characterized as "value for money," with significant undervaluation compared to markets like the US, Japan, and India, providing a safety margin for long-term valuation recovery [2][5]. - The Hong Kong market has seen a valuation recovery, with a 20% to 30% increase in 2025, moving from a significantly undervalued state to a more reasonable valuation [4]. Investment Themes - Investment opportunities in Hong Kong for 2026 are expected to focus on technology growth and domestic demand recovery [2]. - The AI sector and high-end manufacturing are identified as key areas for profit growth, alongside consumer sectors benefiting from policy support and improved consumer sentiment [8]. Capital Inflows - A dual-driven pattern of "continued inflow of southbound funds and gradual return of foreign capital" is anticipated for Hong Kong stocks in 2026 [6]. - The core logic for foreign investment in Hong Kong stocks is based on "valuation recovery" and "industry trend growth," with a shift from underweight to benchmark allocation expected to continue [6]. Economic Recovery - The stabilization of the macroeconomic environment is crucial for market performance, with improvements in external conditions and domestic policies aimed at boosting internal demand [7]. - The focus on domestic demand is expected to enhance valuation recovery in related sectors, with potential for broader market growth if inflation remains moderate [7]. Sector Analysis - The semiconductor industry is in an upward cycle, but domestic companies face challenges compared to international leaders [12]. - The internet sector is experiencing structural changes, with a shift towards selecting companies with sustainable competitive advantages [12]. - High dividend assets in sectors like dining and real estate are seen as having valuation recovery potential, providing stable cash flow amid market volatility [12]. AI Sector Insights - The AI industry is viewed as having significant long-term potential, with current valuations resembling a "beer bubble" rather than a "soap bubble," indicating a solid foundation for growth despite short-term fluctuations [15]. - The focus for investment in AI is currently on foundational equipment, with a gradual approach to application sectors as the market matures [10][11].