The Saturday Spread: Using Volatility Skew as a Smart Money Gauge (TGT, AAPL, ORCL)
Yahoo Finance·2026-02-21 15:15

Group 1: Target (TGT) - Target's stock has rebounded over 19% since January after a decline of more than 38% over the past five years, earning a 96% Strong Buy rating from Barchart Technical Opinion [1] - The volatility skew for TGT stock shows a relatively normal surface-area distortion, indicating little urgency among traders to hedge against strikes likely to be triggered [7] - The Expected Move calculator anticipates a price range for TGT stock between $106.11 and $127.27 for the March 20 expiration date, suggesting a bullish strategy may be reasonable [8][9] Group 2: Apple (AAPL) - Apple stock has seen a decline of about 3% since the beginning of the year, with a 16% Weak Buy rating from Barchart Technical Opinion, indicating potential contrarian opportunities [11] - The volatility skew for AAPL shows calmness near the spot price, but a significant rise on the left boundaries indicates a prioritization of downside protection among traders [13] - The Expected Move for AAPL stock ranges between $252.17 and $276.99 for the March 20 expiration date, with March historically being a strong month for the company [14] Group 3: Oracle (ORCL) - Oracle's stock has dropped over 24% since the start of the year and more than 36% in the past six months, receiving a 100% Strong Sell rating from Barchart Technical Opinion [16] - The volatility skew for ORCL shows a calm and flat structure near the spot price, indicating no urgency for hedging despite the stock's poor performance [17] - The Expected Move for ORCL stock is projected to range between $127.11 and $169.06 for the March 20 expiration date, with March typically being a solid month for the company, suggesting a bullish strategy may be statistically likely [19]

The Saturday Spread: Using Volatility Skew as a Smart Money Gauge (TGT, AAPL, ORCL) - Reportify