Germany is about to find out whether its recovery is real

Economic Outlook for Germany - Germany is forecasted to experience minimal economic growth, with projections of 0.2% in Q1 2026 and 0.3% in Q2 2026, potentially increasing to 0.4% in the second half of 2026, leading to an annual growth of 0.8% in 2026, up from 0.3% in 2025 [2] - A revival in industrial output is deemed essential for Germany to overcome years of stagnation, with significant public spending on infrastructure and military contributing to this recovery [3][4] - The Ifo Institute's indicators are expected to show slight improvements, reflecting positive trends in purchasing manager surveys and indicating growth in Germany's manufacturing sector for the first time since 2022 [5][6] Inflation and Central Bank Insights - Upcoming releases will provide insights into Germany's economic performance, including consumer sentiment and unemployment data, which will help assess whether the economy is on the verge of a revival or still hindered by external factors [6] - The European Central Bank (ECB) is facing uncertainty regarding Christine Lagarde's tenure, which could impact Germany's economic strategy and the potential for a new ECB president [1][7] Global Economic Context - Inflation data from various regions, including Australia, the euro area, and Brazil, will be closely monitored, alongside GDP figures from India and Canada, as central banks in Korea and Thailand are expected to maintain steady interest rates [8] - The US Supreme Court's decision to strike down Trump's global trade duties may have implications for international trade dynamics, affecting economic outlooks in various countries [8][24]