东西问丨过去一周，四大不确定性，都跟这个国家有关

Group 1: Geopolitical Uncertainty - The ongoing military tensions involving Iran and the U.S. have escalated, with the U.S. deploying over 60 attack aircraft to Jordan, tripling their usual presence, indicating a serious military threat [4][5] - The potential for conflict in the Middle East, particularly around the Strait of Hormuz, poses a significant risk to global oil supply, which could lead to soaring oil prices and impact U.S. voters ahead of midterm elections [5][8] Group 2: Energy Supply Uncertainty - The geopolitical situation has led to a spike in international oil prices, with the Middle East accounting for about one-third of global oil supply and nearly 20% of oil transport passing through the Strait of Hormuz [4][5] - Any disruption in this critical shipping lane could severely impact the global energy supply chain, heightening uncertainty in energy markets [5] Group 3: Climate Governance Uncertainty - The U.S. Energy Secretary has threatened to withdraw from the International Energy Agency (IEA) if it does not abandon its "net-zero emissions" agenda, undermining global climate efforts and multilateral governance [7] - The U.S. withdrawal from the Paris Agreement has already had a detrimental effect on global climate action, exacerbating divisions in international governance [7] Group 4: Trade Uncertainty - A recent U.S. Supreme Court ruling has limited the President's ability to impose large tariffs, creating uncertainty in trade policy and potentially leading to a refund of up to $175 billion in tariffs [8] - In response, the Trump administration has announced a new global import tariff of 10%, which is set to increase to 15%, further complicating the trade landscape and impacting global economic recovery [8][11] Group 5: Overall Impact on Global Stability - The combination of geopolitical, energy, climate, and trade uncertainties is likely to create a more volatile global environment, affecting millions of ordinary citizens worldwide [11] - The call for collective action in addressing these uncertainties highlights the challenges posed by the U.S.'s unpredictable strategies in international relations [11]