陈鸿斌：高市早苗来势汹汹，日本修宪势头恐难阻挡？

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the strong push by Japan's Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi for constitutional reform, emphasizing the need for constructive discussions in the National Diet to expedite the submission of a new constitutional draft. Despite the current lack of a two-thirds majority in the Senate, there is potential for the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) to regain control in the 2028 elections, which could facilitate the passage of constitutional amendments [1][3][11]. Group 1: Constitutional Reform Efforts - Takaichi's administration aims to submit a new constitutional draft to the National Diet, with the first step being the submission of proposals from various parties to the constitutional review committee [3][4]. - The LDP has faced challenges in advancing constitutional reform due to a lack of majority support and opposition from the Komeito party, which has historically opposed amendments [4][5]. - The constitutional review committees in both houses of the Diet have been relatively inactive, with significant delays in establishing a drafting group for a new constitution [7][8]. Group 2: Political Dynamics - Takaichi's recent election victory has led to the appointment of a pro-reform figure, Keishi Nishiura, as the head of the House of Representatives' constitutional review committee, indicating a shift towards more aggressive reform efforts [9][11]. - The LDP's previous attempts at reform under former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe were largely unsuccessful, with significant public resistance to changes in the pacifist constitution [8][11]. - Recent polls indicate a growing support for constitutional amendments among newly elected members of the Diet, with 93% of them favoring reform, a significant increase from previous surveys [16][17]. Group 3: Public Opinion and External Influences - Public support for constitutional reform has been rising, with various media outlets reporting over 50% approval for amendments, particularly regarding the inclusion of the Self-Defense Forces in the constitution [14][15][16]. - The U.S. has been a vocal supporter of Japan's constitutional reform, advocating for changes that would allow Japan to take a more active role in international security [19][20][21]. - Neighboring countries, including China and South Korea, are closely monitoring Japan's reform efforts, indicating potential regional tensions arising from these changes [23].